Airlines have removed 13,000 flights and nearly two million seats from May schedules globally as jet fuel prices double since the Iran war began, according to data from aviation analytics firm Cirium. Jet fuel traded at 831pertonneinlateFebruary.By early April,pricesreached831pertonneinlateFebruary.By early April, prices reached 1,838 per tonne. The International Energy Agency warned Europe could face jet fuel shortages by June.

How Jet Fuel Prices Double Disrupted Global Aviation

The doubling of jet fuel prices represents the most rapid increase in airline operating costs since the energy shocks of the 1970s. The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted Middle East supply routes that normally serve European refineries. The UK imports approximately 65% of its jet fuel.

When jet fuel prices double, airline CFOs face an immediate choice. Absorb the cost increase and watch margins collapse. Pass it through to ticket prices and watch demand soften. Or cut capacity preemptively and preserve the routes that remain viable.

The industry chose the third option. Lufthansa announced it would remove 20,000 flights between now and the end of October. Air France, KLM, Air Canada, Delta, and SAS have trimmed their summer schedules. The cumulative cuts from jet fuel prices are sequential, not simultaneous. Each airline adjusts independently. The aggregate effect compounds.

The UK government introduced contingency plans allowing airlines to cancel flights at busy airports without losing valuable takeoff and landing slots. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was confident most people traveling this summer would have a similar experience to last year.

Which Destinations Are Most Affected as Jet Fuel Prices Double

Istanbul and Munich have seen the largest reduction in flights as jet fuel prices double, according to Cirium data. The full list of most-affected airports includes Chicago O’Hare, Dallas Fort Worth, Denver, Atlanta, Frankfurt, Houston Intercontinental, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Amsterdam Schiphol, and Charlotte Douglas.

The cuts concentrate on hub airports where multiple daily frequencies allow consolidation without abandoning markets. Lufthansa’s 10 daily Heathrow-Frankfurt flights can become seven or eight. The business traveler booked on the 08:30 departure gets rebooked on the 10:30. The destination is the same. The fuel burn drops.

Point-to-point carriers serving leisure routes with limited frequencies face a different calculus as jet fuel prices double. The Manchester-to-Skiathos route has no daily alternative. Cutting it means abandoning the market entirely.

Julia Lo Bue-Said, chief executive of Advantage Travel Partnership, called the May cancellations “marginal” and said, “UK departures, including key summer sun destinations, remain unaffected, so customers can continue to book with confidence.”

What Comes Next After Jet Fuel Prices Double

Wizz Air’s chief executive noted that some European flight prices were falling as airlines try to attract customers who may be hesitant about booking during the period when jet fuel prices double. Two competing dynamics now operate simultaneously: capacity reduction to manage costs and price discounting to maintain demand.

The IEA warned in mid-April that Europe would face jet fuel shortages by June unless additional supplies could be secured from alternative sources. The 13,000 flights cut in May represent approximately 1% of global capacity. The question is whether that percentage holds through the summer peak.