Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden as US intelligence cannot visually confirm the location of Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not appeared in public since the strike that killed his father at the beginning of the war. The supreme leader communicates only through couriers and in-person visitors while receiving treatment for burns on one side of his body. As Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden as US negotiators attempt to end the conflict, senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf run the day-to-day operations of the fractured regime.

The Intelligence Gap as Iran’s Supreme Leader Remains Hidden as US Probes

US intelligence assessments describe Khamenei as fairly removed from decision-making and only sporadically accessible, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence. One source told CNN there is “no indication he is actually giving orders on any ongoing basis, but nothing proving he is not.” The double negative contains the entire analytical problem as Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden as US analysts cannot determine whether the absence reflects incapacity or strategy.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, told CNN that “the system is using him to get final approval for key broad decisions and not for the tactics for the negotiations.” His involvement provides a “protective shield” against internal criticism. Unlike his father, who appeared regularly, “Mojtaba is missing in action, so attributing views to him is a good cover for Iranian negotiators to protect themselves from criticism.”

A source familiar with US intelligence assessments characterized the uncertainty as “Wizard of Oz meets Weekend at Bernie’s.” The reference captures the operational problem that Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden, as US negotiators cannot confirm whether the person they believe is authorizing concessions is actually making decisions.

Who Governs as Iran’s Supreme Leader Remains Hidden as US Watches

Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander, led the first round of talks with the US in Islamabad. Gulf partners told Vice President JD Vance that Ghalibaf held the authority to negotiate. He is one of the few Iranian figures capable of dealing with both diplomats and military commanders.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told state media he held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei. The claim cannot be independently verified. It serves the regime’s interest whether or not it is true, as Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden, and as US intelligence relies on those who claim access to him.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that the Iranian system “is still highly fractured, and it’s dysfunctional as well, so that may be serving as an impediment” to negotiations. The White House position is that the fractured regime cannot produce unified proposals even as Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden as US diplomats await a formal response to the latest American proposal.

The Military Reality as Iran’s Supreme Leader Remains Hidden as US Pushes

The CIA assesses Iran can survive four more months of blockade without complete economic destabilization. Two-thirds of Iran’s missile launchers survived US strikes. The ceasefire provided time to dig out launchers that had been buried. The military capabilities that were supposed to have been destroyed are partially intact.

Iran’s protocol chief, Mazaher Hosseini, addressed a crowd Friday, saying Khamenei is healing and “is now in complete health.” The claim that Iran’s supreme leader remains hidden as US officials question his status was dismissed as enemy rumor. The people were told to be patient. He will speak when the time is right.